Bitcoin Price Surges $10K: Alphractal Founder Warns of Bull Trap Near $113K

Bitcoin Climbs $10K After Key Pattern: Analyst Predicts Bull Trap and Sideways Market Ahead

In a sharp display of market foresight, Joao Wedson, the founder of cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal, recently shared an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's (BTC) latest price movements—highlighting both gains and caution for the near future. According to Wedson, Bitcoin surged by $10,000 following a classic re-accumulation and distribution pattern he had publicly identified just 10 days earlier. Now, as BTC hovers around the $109,000 mark, Wedson warns of potential traps and advises strategic restraint.

$99K Was the Bottom, Says Wedson

In a bold yet accurate call, Wedson declared that Bitcoin had bottomed just below $99,000, basing his projection on a Short-Term Holders Realized Price (STH RP) test—a metric often used to assess the average acquisition price of coins held by short-term investors. This level, he suggested, acted as a solid support zone where smart money began to re-enter the market.

“I called the bottom just below $99,000 based on the Short-Term Holders Realized Price test,” Wedson confidently stated.

The timing of his call proved significant as Bitcoin rebounded sharply, climbing $10,000 in the days that followed. The move confirmed bullish momentum, but not without potential pitfalls on the horizon.

Next Stop: $113,000 — But Tread Carefully

Looking ahead, Wedson pinpointed $113,000 as the next short-term resistance level—citing a high liquidity concentration at this price zone. According to his market analysis, this level could serve as the staging ground for a bull trap—a deceptive breakout that lures buyers in before reversing downward.

“There is a high liquidity concentration at the $113,000 level. A bull trap can easily be set here,” he warned.

Wedson emphasized that this is not an ideal time to open new long positions, urging traders to remain cautious rather than chase the rally.

“The opportunity has passed. Now is the time to manage risk or catch strong jumps in some altcoins,” he added.

Bear Trap, Bull Trap, and What Comes Next

Reflecting on recent market dynamics, Wedson labeled June 22 as a clear example of a bear trap—a false downward signal that led to panic selling before prices sharply reversed to the upside. These traps, both bullish and bearish, are common in highly speculative markets like crypto and often lead to significant losses for unprepared traders.

What’s more, Wedson anticipates another bull trap in the near term, likely followed by yet another bear trap, all before Bitcoin potentially embarks on a final upward push through early September.

“I expect a bull trap next, followed by a new bear trap. After that, we may see the last upward movement before entering a long horizontal market,” Wedson explained.

This predicted sideways market—commonly referred to as a consolidation phase—could last for several months, acting as a cooling-off period before any further substantial price developments.

Technical Indicators Align With Wedson’s Outlook

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Wedson's analysis aligns with several key technical indicators:

Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart shows signs of overbought conditions, supporting his caution about a bull trap.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) appears to be approaching a bearish crossover.
Volume profiles show a thinning above $113,000, further increasing the possibility of a false breakout.

These indicators collectively reinforce the need for risk management at current levels rather than aggressive entry.

Altcoins May Offer Better Opportunities

With Bitcoin potentially nearing a temporary peak, Wedson advises investors to turn their attention to altcoins that may experience explosive short-term gains.

“Altcoins tend to outperform during Bitcoin’s consolidation phases,” he noted, adding that select low-cap projects and trending tokens could deliver double-digit returns even as BTC moves sideways.

Some potential altcoin categories to watch include:

AI-related tokens, which are gaining renewed investor interest amid advancements in artificial intelligence.
Layer-2 solutions, especially those associated with Ethereum, offering scalability and reduced transaction fees.
DeFi governance tokens, which have been experiencing quiet accumulation over the past few weeks.

Strategic Takeaways for Traders

As market conditions shift, Wedson offers the following strategic recommendations:

Avoid Chasing Long Positions: The bulk of the upward movement from $99K to $109K has already occurred. Jumping in now could mean entering near resistance.
Monitor the $113K Level Closely: This is a key zone to watch for potential reversal patterns or increased selling pressure.
Diversify Into Promising Altcoins: With Bitcoin possibly entering a sideways phase, altcoins could be the next arena for profit.
Practice Tight Risk Management: Set stop-loss levels and maintain a balanced risk/reward ratio, especially in anticipation of bull or bear traps.
Stay Informed on Macro Events: Global macroeconomic indicators—such as inflation data, interest rate decisions, or ETF inflows—could drastically influence market behavior in Q3.

Conclusion: Momentum with a Side of Caution

While the recent $10,000 surge in Bitcoin’s price reflects strong short-term momentum, the market may be approaching a critical juncture. Joao Wedson’s forecasts serve as a timely reminder that trading success lies in timing, not chasing. With high liquidity near $113K and technical indicators suggesting a pause, the best play for now may be defensive positioning or selective altcoin exposure.

As we head into the summer months, traders would do well to keep an eye on liquidity levels, pattern formations, and the psychological traps that often shape crypto market cycles. With September earmarked for a potential final move, the next few weeks could offer both opportunity and danger in equal measure.