Bitcoin is approaching the Golden Cross, with its target near the $109,000 ATH

Bitcoin Eyes Bullish Breakout as First Golden Cross in 7 Months Forms on Daily Chart

Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of forming a highly significant Golden Cross on its daily (1D) chart—a bullish technical signal that hasn’t appeared since October 27, 2024. This development comes as the leading cryptocurrency flirts with its all-time high (ATH) of $109,000, following a remarkable rebound from the recent Trade War-induced correction.

With macroeconomic headwinds seemingly subsiding and market momentum accelerating, technical indicators are aligning in a way that may mark the next leg of Bitcoin’s historic bull cycle.

What Is a Golden Cross and Why It Matters

A Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (MA50) crosses above the 200-day moving average (MA200) on a price chart. In technical analysis, this pattern is widely regarded as a bullish signal, indicating a shift in trend momentum from bearish to bullish.

In Bitcoin’s case, every Golden Cross that has formed within the current 2.5-year "Channel Up" bull structure has triggered immediate upside price action. The minimum gain following such a cross has been +33.11%, with no exceptions to date.

$135,000: The Next Major Target

If historical performance holds, Bitcoin could be gearing up for another major surge. With BTC currently trading just below its ATH of $109,000, a +33.11% rise from this point implies a short-term target of approximately $135,000.

This target aligns with previous projections, derived from both on-chain data and price chart pattern analysis, suggesting it is not only possible but highly probable—provided the Golden Cross confirms in the coming days.

Triple Confirmation: MACD + Golden Cross + Channel Up

What adds further weight to the bullish narrative is the convergence of multiple indicators:

Golden Cross on the 1D chart: Indicates strengthening short-term to medium-term bullish momentum.
Bullish MACD crossover on the weekly (1W) chart: This historically precedes the 1D Golden Cross and confirms medium-term uptrend potential.
Channel Up Formation: Bitcoin continues to move within its long-standing upward-sloping channel, respected since the bottom of the 2022 bear market.

Together, these signals form a triple-layered confirmation of market strength and set the stage for a continuation toward higher price levels.

The Historical Context of Bitcoin’s Golden Crosses

Let’s revisit the performance of Bitcoin after previous Golden Cross formations within this same bull cycle:

March 2023: Golden Cross led to a +48% increase over the following 45 days.
August 2023: Triggered a +39% rally within 30 days before a correction.
October 2024: Produced a +52% price surge in under two months.

The average gain across these events is roughly +46%, which reinforces that the current $135K target is potentially conservative, especially if momentum remains unbroken.

Additional Bullish Catalysts at Play

Bitcoin Golden Cross Sparks Bullish Momentum: Is $130K the Next Target?

Apart from technical signals, a range of macroeconomic and market-based factors may provide tailwinds for Bitcoin’s next move:

Declining Inflation & Potential Rate Cuts: The Federal Reserve’s recent shift in tone has sparked hopes of rate cuts by Q3 2025, typically a bullish development for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
ETF Inflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to experience net inflows, with institutional demand fueling a solid base of long-term holders.
Reduced Sell Pressure: On-chain data shows that long-term holders are reluctant to sell, suggesting reduced supply on exchanges.
Halving Cycle Momentum: The April 2024 halving event is now being fully priced in, historically leading to parabolic moves within 12–18 months.

Risks and Pullback Scenarios

No bullish setup is without risk. While the Golden Cross is a historically strong indicator, it's important to consider potential pullback scenarios:

Failed Breakout: If BTC fails to break above $110,000 decisively, it could re-test support near the 50-day MA (~$98K).
Bearish Divergences: Traders should watch for any bearish RSI divergences or volume weakening, which could signal an exhaustion in buying power.
Geopolitical Shocks: Renewed global trade or military tensions could suddenly reverse bullish sentiment.

That said, as long as Bitcoin remains above its 200-day MA, the bullish structure remains intact.

Is $135K Just the Beginning?

If the current setup plays out similarly to previous cycles, $135,000 may not be the final stop, but rather an intermediate target. The top of the Channel Up formation projects a longer-term target near $150,000 to $165,000, assuming momentum accelerates in Q3 and Q4 2025.

Moreover, Fibonacci extension levels from the 2022 bottom to the 2024 top suggest the following targets:

1.618 Extension: ~$138,500
2.0 Extension: ~$156,000
2.618 Extension: ~$180,000

These levels are often hit during the euphoric phase of a bull cycle, which some analysts argue is still ahead.

Expert Opinions

Several well-known analysts in the crypto space have shared their thoughts:

Mike McGlone (Bloomberg Intelligence): “Bitcoin’s long-term upward bias is strengthening with every higher low. The Golden Cross reinforces the idea of a sustainable rally into six-figure territory.”
Will Clemente (Reflexivity Research): “On-chain metrics, including supply held by long-term holders and dormant coin accumulation, support the thesis of a Bitcoin rally continuing past $135K.”

Key Technical Levels to Watch

IndicatorCurrent LevelSignificance

1D MA50 (Blue)	~$98,500	Short-term support, near breakout zone
1D MA200 (Orange)	~$92,100	Long-term support, bottom of trend
RSI (Relative Strength Index)	68	Approaching overbought but still healthy
MACD (1W)	Bullish Cross	Confirms long-term uptrend
Resistance	$109,000 (ATH)	Breakout needed for $135K confirmation
Target 1	$135,000	Based on past Golden Cross rallies
Target 2	$150,000–$165,000	Channel top, Fib extension zone

Conclusion: Is This the Ultimate Buy Signal?

The confluence of a pending Golden Cross, a bullish weekly MACD crossover, and Bitcoin’s continued adherence to its 2.5-year rising channel paints a compelling picture for bulls. Historical patterns suggest that such technical setups rarely fail, especially when backed by strong fundamentals like institutional demand and favorable macroeconomic shifts.

While $135,000 appears to be the next logical target, the data and chart structure suggest even higher prices could be achieved in this bull phase. That said, traders should remain cautious of short-term volatility, and set clear stop-loss and profit-taking levels to manage risk.

If Bitcoin confirms its Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame in the coming days, $135K could represent just the beginning of a much larger move. With the stars aligning across multiple technical and fundamental dimensions, this could be one of the strongest buy signals for Bitcoin in nearly a year.

Georgi Minev publication: "Bitcoin is approaching the Golden Cross, with its target near the $109,000 ATH — is $135,000 next?" was written for 24crypto.news